TechFlow news, July 9 — According to Jinshi Data, recent dot plots reveal a clear divergence within the Federal Reserve. Some policymakers expect two rate cuts this year, while others anticipate no cuts at all. Morgan Stanley analysts said they will look for clues behind this split. More hawkish members might indicate they are waiting for rising unemployment, or that they need more time to assess the impact of tariffs and other fiscal policies on inflation. Powell has stated he expects the inflationary effects of tariffs to become evident this summer, suggesting that uncertainty over these price pressures remains the sole obstacle to looser policy. If the meeting minutes show partial alignment with this view, it could signal a shift toward a more proactive stance by the Fed.
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