TechFlow, July 8 — CryptoQuant analysts reported that the BCMI index has recently broken above the 0.50 neutral line, indicating that the Bitcoin market is in a "mid-cycle warming up" phase. The Fear & Greed Index sits in the greed range at over 70 points, while MVRV (~2.0) and NUPL (~0.4) suggest market valuations have reached only half of euphoric levels.
Historical patterns show that when the BCMI enters the 0.60–0.75 range, a 20–35% pullback typically occurs before the cycle peak. While ETF inflows and self-custody trends are moderating on-chain volatility, crowded positions in derivatives markets may still trigger sharp corrections.
The analysts recommend: spot investors should gradually accumulate positions and use trailing stops; holders should retain core holdings and begin hedging or reducing leverage when BCMI exceeds 0.60; profits should be locked in and risk reduced when the index surpasses 0.75.
