TechFlow, July 8 — According to Jinshi Data, Capital Economics stated that ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs may delay the Bank of Japan's move to tighten monetary policy. The firm's base case remains that Tokyo will reach an agreement with Washington to avoid the threat of 25% tariffs. If such an outcome occurs soon and tariffs are either not raised or only moderately increased, the rationale for a BOJ rate hike in October would remain intact. Current inflation is significantly above the BOJ's May forecast, and the Japanese economy has performed reasonably well so far. However, economist Marcel Thieliant noted that any further delays in negotiations or a substantial increase in tariffs could convince the central bank to postpone rate hikes until next year.
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