TechFlow news, June 26 — According to Jinshi Data, JPMorgan analysts said in a mid-year outlook research report on Wednesday that U.S. tariff policies could drag down global economic growth and reignite inflation in the United States. The bank estimates a 40% probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession in the second half of this year. It expects U.S. economic growth of 1.3% in 2025, down from its earlier forecast of 2%. "The stagflationary impact from higher tariffs is the reason we revised down our GDP growth forecast for this year," the report stated.
JPMorgan is bearish on the U.S. dollar, citing slowing U.S. economic growth, while pro-growth policies outside the U.S. are expected to boost other currencies, including emerging market currencies. The bank forecasts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points between December and spring 2026. Analysts noted that if a recession or a sharper-than-expected slowdown occurs, it could trigger a more aggressive easing cycle. However, the bank remains positive on U.S. equities, citing continued resilience in consumers and the economy despite policy uncertainty.
