TechFlow news, June 16 — According to Jinshi Data, Royal Bank of Canada strategists outlined three potential scenarios for a U.S. stock market correction in a report, noting that if rising oil prices trigger a surge in inflation, the S&P 500 could decline by 20%. The strategists said U.S. equities appear vulnerable given the recent rally and stretched valuations. They added that the broader and longer the Middle East conflict persists, the greater the negative impact on U.S. stocks. In the worst-case scenario, if the conflict drives up energy prices, the S&P 500 could retreat to its April lows. In a less severe scenario, the index might fall by around 13%. Analysis shows that if inflation "sharply" surges to 4%, earnings growth remains flat from 2024 onward, the Fed cuts rates only twice, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield holds at current levels, the benchmark index could drop to 4,800 by year-end—nearly 20% below current levels.
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