TechFlow, June 10 — According to Jinshi Data, four members from Nomura Securities' global market research department stated that the Bank of Japan may face "considerable obstacles" in raising interest rates this year. They cited factors including the impact of U.S. tariffs on the domestic economy and prices, the Japanese government's economic stimulus measures, and the drafting of Japan's budget for fiscal year 2026. Due to U.S. tariffs, wage growth from March to April 2026 could be lower than expected, which means potential inflation growth might slow temporarily starting then.
However, the worst effects of the tariffs could end by January 2026, and Nomura expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in January 2026 and keep rates unchanged throughout fiscal year 2026.
