TechFlow news, according to Jinshi Data, Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for China's export growth in its latest research report, expecting real export growth in 2025 to be broadly flat compared to 2024, versus a previous forecast of a 5% year-on-year decline; the current account surplus as a share of GDP has also been revised upward from 1.7% to 2.3%.
On monetary policy, in another report released the same day, Goldman Sachs believes that following the recent "dual cut" (reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut) by the People's Bank of China, a further "dual cut" is expected in the fourth quarter (a 50 basis point RRR cut plus a 10 basis point rate cut), with two additional 10 basis point rate cuts possible in 2026.
Based on its assumptions regarding China's export growth and monetary policy for 2025, Goldman Sachs has also raised its forecasts for quarterly GDP growth in the second half of this year and upgraded its projection for full-year real GDP growth in 2025.
