TechFlow, April 20 — According to Jinshi News, Evercore ISI analysts said any attempt by the Trump administration to remove Federal Reserve Chair Powell "would trigger a surge in stagflation trades," though they consider such action "unlikely." Movements in bond and foreign exchange markets indicate that the market has already lost confidence in Trump's economic policies. However, there are currently no signs of lost confidence in the Fed, as inflation expectations remain low. Any move undermining the Fed's independence would cause long-term yields to spike due to heightened inflation risk, a sharp steepening of the yield curve, a plunging dollar, and a broad rise across all risk premiums—including equity risk premium—potentially triggering a recession directly.
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