US economist: The Fed has over-cut interest rates, and the probability of the US陷入stagflation is 65%
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US economist: The Fed has over-cut interest rates, and the probability of the US陷入stagflation is 65%
According to Jinshi Data, Adam Posen, who previously served at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, said in a speech this week, "We may or may not fall into a recession, but either way, we're going to face inflation." Posen, currently president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a highly influential figure, believes the likelihood of a recession stands at 65%. Regarding the Federal Reserve, Posen argues that it has already cut interest rates too much given the still-high level of inflation. If prices begin rising again, the Fed could fall behind the curve. As a result, it might be forced to rapidly raise interest rates by a large margin, placing additional pressure on the economy. If all this comes to pass, Posen said, repairing the damage could take years or even longer.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsTechFlow, April 18 — According to Jinshi Data, Adam Posen, who previously served at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, said in a speech this week, "We may fall into recession, or we may not, but either way, we will face inflation." Posen, currently director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a highly influential figure, assessed the likelihood of a recession at 65%.
Regarding the Federal Reserve, Posen believes it has cut interest rates too much given the still-high level of inflation. Once prices start rising again, the Fed could fall behind the curve. As a result, it might be forced to sharply raise interest rates rapidly, placing additional stress on the economy.
If all this comes to pass, Posen said, repairing the damage could take years or even longer.
