TechFlow news, April 18 — According to Adam, macro researcher at Greeks.live, today sees the expiration of 23,000 Bitcoin options and 177,000 Ethereum options. Among them, the Bitcoin put/call ratio is 0.96, with a maximum pain price of $82,000 and a notional value reaching $1.97 billion; the Ethereum put/call ratio is 0.84, with a maximum pain price of $1,600 and a notional value of $280 million.
Adam analyzed that "Market movements this week have been much milder. Trump released fewer messages this week, causing the market to cool down abruptly. Currently, short-term realized volatility (RV) stands at only 30%, while implied volatility (IV) has dropped sharply this week, falling below 40%. Medium- to long-term RV ranges between 50% and 60%, with IV clustering around 50%. We believe that the trade war and tariff conflict are far from over, and market uncertainty will persist over the long term, as will market volatility. The delivery volume accounts for less than 10% of total open interest. The put/call ratio (PCR) has remained high recently, clearly indicating that market concerns about declines outweigh expectations for gains. Both April and June option open interest remain around 25%, suggesting a relatively stable market structure with a high likelihood of consolidation. However, we are currently in the painful transition phase from bull to bear market, with investor sentiment generally low. Under such deteriorating conditions, the probability of black swan events significantly increases, making it a good strategy to purchase some deep out-of-the-money puts."
