TechFlow reports on April 16 that QCP Asia's latest report shows the U.S., after demonstrating tariff threats, swiftly pivoted to extend an olive branch to China and invited it back to the negotiating table. This shift stems from warning signals in the bond market, where the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries surged to 4.6% and the 30-year exceeded 5%, triggering market unease. The Federal Reserve has started shifting focus toward recession risks while downplaying inflation concerns, with markets expecting 3.5 rate cuts by 2025. The report notes that amid geopolitical tensions, gold continues to rise as the market's preferred safe-haven asset, while bitcoin fails to attract safe-haven capital. Meanwhile, U.S. swap spreads are rising and sovereign debt CDS is widening.
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