TechFlow, April 10 — According to Jinshi Data, U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly declined in March, even as Trump reduces tariffs on other countries, while inflation risks remain tilted upward.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday that the CPI dropped 0.1% month-on-month in March, compared to a 0.2% increase in February. This decline may reflect lower energy costs and fading effects from earlier price increases. Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month in March, down from 0.2% in February.
On a year-on-year basis, core CPI increased 2.8% in March, down from 3.1% in February. The March figures likely capture only a small portion of the impact from Trump's initial wave of import tariffs.
Capital Economics estimates inflation will peak around 4%, double the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The minutes from the Fed's March 18–19 meeting, released Wednesday, showed policymakers were nearly unanimous in viewing the economy as facing simultaneous risks of rising inflation and slowing growth.
