TechFlow news, on March 26, according to Jinshi reports, on the eve of Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, Goldman Sachs' latest report warned that actual tariff rates could reach twice the market expectation, and predicted the White House might adopt a "shock-then-retreat" strategy, leading markets through a volatile pattern of "crash then stabilize".
Recently, Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump would adopt a "targeted strategy," which had temporarily boosted U.S. stock market rebounds. In the report, Goldman Sachs' chief political strategist Alec Phillips pointed out that although reciprocal tariffs might cover the vast majority of U.S. imports, the specific tariff rates remain unclear.
He warned: "Initial tariff announcements are likely designed to negatively shock markets," for two reasons: first, government officials have indicated higher initial rates may be proposed as negotiating leverage—similar to previous instances when tariffs on Canada and Mexico were "loudly announced but withdrawn days later"; second, Goldman Sachs surveys show the market expects an average reciprocal tariff rate of 9%, but actual rates could approach double that expectation.
Goldman Sachs' final conclusion: On April 2, markets may face an "explosive shock," but the impact could dissipate quickly.
