TechFlow News, March 13 — According to Cointelegraph, multiple analysts have warned that the ETH/BTC exchange rate may continue to decline in the coming weeks. Cryptocurrency analyst Alessandro Ottaviani described the current situation as a "catching a falling knife" scenario, referring to a rapid and steep drop that typically discourages buyers from entering too early. The "falling knife" metaphor suggests that attempting to "catch the knife" when an asset appears cheap can lead to even greater losses, especially when the downward trend persists.
Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for ETH/BTC on the two-week chart has dropped to a record low of 23.32. While an RSI below 30 usually signals an oversold condition that could trigger a rebound, Ethereum's RSI continued declining for two months after becoming oversold, indicating that the downtrend is accelerating rather than stabilizing. If ETH/BTC fails to rebound from the 0.022 BTC level, it may continue falling toward the 0.020–0.016 BTC range, representing a further decline of approximately 30% from current levels.
Fundamental factors also support the bearish outlook. Ethereum faces strong competition from rivals such as Solana; VanEck data shows that Solana’s decentralized exchange trading volume has already surpassed Ethereum’s. Additionally, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has disrupted traditional crypto market cycles—the $129 billion inflow into Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 drained liquidity from the broader altcoin markets, including Ethereum.
