TechFlow news, March 12 — According to Cointelegraph, despite Bitcoin recently dropping 30% from its all-time high of $109,350 to hit a four-month low at $76,700 on March 11, four key indicators suggest this correction may already be ending.
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First, the current market correction is fundamentally different from the November 2021 bear market. In 2021, Bitcoin plunged 41% from $69,000 to $40,560 within 60 days, whereas the current pullback resembles the 31.5% correction seen in June 2024. A true bear market typically requires at least a 40% decline, a threshold not yet reached.
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Second, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has declined from 109.2 at the beginning of 2025 to 104, contrasting sharply with the strengthening dollar during the late 2021 bear market. Analysts note that Bitcoin generally moves inversely to the DXY, and the current weakening dollar environment supports price stabilization.
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Third, derivatives market data show signs of health. Although prices fell 19% between March 2 and March 11, annualized Bitcoin futures premiums remained at 4.5%, significantly higher than the negative levels observed during the June 2022 bear market. Meanwhile, perpetual contract funding rates are near zero, indicating balanced long and short leverage demand, without the excessive shorting typical of bear markets.
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Fourth, market concerns are primarily focused on the potential U.S. government shutdown scheduled for March 15 and risks tied to an artificial intelligence sector bubble. Numerous large-cap public companies with market capitalizations exceeding $150 billion have pulled back sharply from their peaks, including Tesla (-54%), NVIDIA (-34%), and TSMC (-26%). This broad risk-off sentiment has contributed to Bitcoin’s short-term correction.
In addition, early warning signs in the U.S. housing market may accelerate capital flows into scarce assets. Analysts believe that a weaker dollar, historical data showing that 30% corrections are insufficient to mark bear markets, resilience in Bitcoin derivatives markets, volatility driven by government shutdown risks, and emerging real estate market stress will collectively support Bitcoin’s rebound toward $90,000.
Currently, Bitcoin has recovered from its lows, and market participants are closely watching progress in U.S. debt ceiling negotiations. Divisions within the Republican party over defense and immigration spending remain unresolved. A successful agreement could trigger a positive response across risk assets, including Bitcoin.
