TechFlow news — On March 12, according to Jinshi News, the latest research report from CICC stated that although current data has not yet indicated a U.S. economic recession, economic downturns typically exhibit nonlinear characteristics, and core economic indicators could deteriorate rapidly within one to two months, making early warnings difficult. The report cited examples showing that U.S. GDP could still remain around 4% six months before a recession, and nonfarm payrolls could stay near 100,000 just one month prior.
CICC believes that since the U.S. economy has clearly entered a downward cycle and faces nonlinear risks, the "recession narrative" will not easily fade—even if an immediate recession does not occur. Recently, Trump stated he is not focused on the stock market and expects the U.S. economy to undergo a difficult period lasting 6–12 months.
Given this outlook, CICC recommends that overseas asset allocation should prioritize risk mitigation until there is a significant shift in Trump’s economic policies or the Fed turns toward substantial monetary easing. Investors should maintain underweight positions in U.S. equities and commodities. While safe-haven assets such as gold and bonds are likely to benefit from rising market risks, their recent rapid gains warrant caution against chasing higher prices; investors should consider adding exposure gradually on pullbacks.
