TechFlow news, March 7 — According to Jinshi Data, Steven Englander, Global Head of G10 Foreign Exchange Research and North American Macro Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, said that despite slowing economic growth, market concerns over a U.S. recession may be overstated. Although high interest rates and government spending issues continue to raise concerns, he believes economic data does not fully support the most pessimistic scenarios.
Englander noted that falling energy prices and improved weather conditions in the coming months could boost consumer spending and thereby support economic growth. He expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, with reductions likely in the second and third quarters. However, given continued fiscal policy support for government spending, further rate cuts are unlikely. In contrast, with stable inflation and wage growth, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates twice, which would make the yen outperform other major currencies.
Recent waves of U.S. tariff increases may push up inflation, but their impact will remain manageable. Englander believes that while tariffs could lead to price increases, the overall shock will still be contained. He also forecasts that the U.S. government will use fiscal policy to support economic growth, potentially driving the dollar stronger in the second half of the year.
