TechFlow news, on March 11, Minsheng Securities Research Institute reported that the Nasdaq has fallen 13% cumulatively over the past four weeks, already "smelling like an economic recession." The report believes the core driver behind the U.S. stock market decline is liquidity tightening fears under recession expectations. On one hand, Trump's comments about "recession" coincide with weakening economic data; on the other hand, market concerns over liquidity have intensified, stemming not only from market discomfort during the final phase of the Fed's balance sheet reduction but also from "diversion" effects originating in China and European markets, as well as the "shadow" of potential further tightening by the Bank of Japan.
The report also pointed out that the U.S. economy faces growing concerns of a sharp slowdown, with repeated shifts in tariff policies and the impact of DOGE-related layoffs and spending cuts causing a reversal in economic optimism. The Atlanta Fed has significantly revised its GDP growth forecast for Q1 this year downward from +3.9% in early February to -2.4%, entering recession territory, primarily due to weakening household consumption and net export figures.
