TechFlow news, according to Cointelegraph, Real Vision cryptocurrency analyst Jamie Coutts said a weakening U.S. dollar could be bullish for Bitcoin, but two indicators remain concerning in the short term. "While a sharp drop in the dollar shifts my framework toward bullishness, Treasury volatility (MOVE Index) and corporate bond spreads still raise caution," Coutts noted.
Data from Market Watch shows the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a four-month low of 103.85 on March 10. Coutts explained that as global collateral, increased volatility in U.S. Treasuries leads to write-downs in collateral valuations, thereby tightening liquidity. He observed that while the MOVE Index is currently stable, it is trending upward, and corporate bond spreads have widened for three consecutive weeks—historically, major reversals in corporate bond spreads often coincide with Bitcoin price tops.
Nonetheless, Coutts emphasized that dollar depreciation—one of the largest monthly declines in 12 years during March—remains the primary driver in his framework. Other bullish factors include a global race to build strategic Bitcoin reserves, Michael Saylor’s Strategy adding another 100,000 to 200,000 bitcoins this year, potential doubling of spot ETF holdings, and rising liquidity. He likened Bitcoin to a "high-stakes game" against central banks: "As their options dwindle—and assuming holders remain unleveraged—the odds are increasingly favoring Bitcoin holders."
