TechFlow news, on February 18, QCP Capital's latest analysis indicated that the term structure of the options market near the March expiry date has shown a noticeable distortion, particularly in Ethereum options, which may reflect market positioning ahead of the upcoming Ethereum Pectra upgrade currently in testing phase and expected to launch in early April.
Looking back at previous upgrades, the September 2022 Merge followed the classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern—ETH rose over 100% from its June lows before pulling back after the upgrade. In contrast, the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023, which enabled staking withdrawals, faced bearish sentiment due to concerns over potential supply overhang. However, once the market realized the anticipated sell-off did not materialize, ETH rallied 30% over the following months.
As expectations around the upgrade heat up, traders may be positioning for another volatility event, with option implied volatility beyond March 28 skewing toward call options—potentially setting the stage for crypto’s next major theme following the recent Trump tariff turmoil.
A limiting factor remains the general weakness across the altcoin market—LIBRA's collapse, SOL and ETH retreating to pre-election levels, and Bitcoin dominance nearing historic highs. Beyond market catalysts, sustainable altcoin recovery may require substantial progress in real-world applications and network development, rather than relying solely on speculative capital flows.
