TechFlow reports on February 17 that QCP Capital's latest analysis indicates Bitcoin's market dominance has risen to around 60%, nearing a four-year high, as the market continues to trade sideways, while ETH and other altcoins continue to underperform. The report notes that the recent LIBRA project "exit scam" scandal linked to Argentine President Milei may impact the development of similar projects and suppress sentiment for altcoins and meme coins.
The report highlights that after Bitcoin’s price returned to the middle of its trading range, 7-day realized volatility dropped to 36, driving implied volatility lower. With no major crypto-specific catalysts in sight, price movements remain primarily driven by macro factors, and the correlation between Bitcoin and equities remains significant. Despite ongoing macro uncertainties such as tariffs, debt ceiling debates, inflation, and unpredictability surrounding Trump, implied volatility in crypto markets and the VIX remain subdued.
Additionally, the report points out Bitcoin has shown strong resilience against recent macro data releases, while open interest has not seen a clear recovery following expiry at the end of January. This suggests crypto options markets are awaiting concrete policy changes rather than reacting to positive rhetoric alone. Currently, even with low volatility, market participants remain cautious about paying time premium—a situation reminiscent of Bitcoin’s range-bound behavior during the second and third quarters of last year. Most trading activity is now focused on short-volatility or range-bound strategies, rather than positioning for a major breakout.
