TechFlow reports that on February 10, Argentine economist and veteran crypto trader Alex Krüger analyzed the current state of the crypto market, noting similarities with May 2021 and May 2024, but also significant differences. Bitcoin is currently trading in a range, but an eventual upward breakout is expected. The supercycle thesis remains valid. Although the total market capitalization of the broader crypto market (excluding BTC and stablecoins) has risen significantly, most established altcoins are struggling to sustain gains, and there should be no expectation of a prolonged liquidity surge lifting all projects.
Regarding major assets, SOL has performed the strongest, but will face substantial unlock pressures over the next two months, and tax season may trigger selling pressure in about a month. Ethereum needs to regain momentum by improving value capture within its L2 ecosystem and developing more killer applications.
For the altcoin market, Krüger expects the next rally to be shorter and smaller in scale than previous cycles. While current market sentiment and positioning remain relatively bearish, without clear catalysts, the exact timing is difficult to predict. He believes that when market participants are generally feeling angry or frustrated, it could actually serve as a bullish signal.
On the macro front, Krüger anticipates the impact of tariff policies will gradually fade, with improved government efficiency becoming the focus. The Fed is likely to cut rates in June, though later than current market expectations, as it needs to confirm tariffs won't create secondary effects. This would affect both short-end and long-end interest rates, driving risk asset appreciation.
He advises investors to remain optimistic yet patient, avoiding full exposure to navigate two-way volatility. The current environment is more suitable for active traders.
