TechFlow news, on February 10, according to Jinshi News, a research report from CITIC Securities indicated that the U.S. non-farm payroll growth in January 2025 came in below expectations, with healthcare services, retail trade, and government sectors being the main contributors. The wildfires in Los Angeles and severe winter weather in other parts of the U.S. did not have a significant impact on the overall labor market. The declining unemployment rate, rising wage growth, and smaller-than-initially-estimated downward revisions in annual data adjustments suggest the labor market remains healthy.
CITIC Securities expects minimal impact on 2025 non-farm employment growth from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by Elon Musk. The latest non-farm payroll data disrupted the relatively optimistic market sentiment following the December CPI release, pushing back expectations for rate cuts. Market focus will now center on Trump's tariff uncertainties and inflation expectations. U.S. equities are expected to remain highly volatile; if the January CPI or proposed tariff plans exceed expectations, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index may rise again. CITIC Securities maintains its forecast of two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Fed this year.
