TechFlow news — On January 26, Adam, analyst at Greeks.live, released the weekly market outlook for January 27 to February 2. The approaching Lunar New Year is expected to temporarily reduce the influence of Chinese-speaking users on the markets. Despite President Trump’s frequent economic policy announcements during his first week in office, the probability remains as high as 98% that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady this week. Markets are focusing on Thursday's rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Japan's rate hike has already been implemented, while the Eurozone continues to expect further rate cuts.
In the crypto market, Bitcoin is currently oscillating above $100,000, with fading momentum in TRUMP-related meme coins leading to a dispersion of market enthusiasm. Options markets reflect significantly reduced uncertainty—the weekly at-the-money IV has dropped below 55%, and overall term at-the-money IV has fallen under 60%. Recently, there has been substantial institutional call option volume; however, institutions have started accumulating short positions after key events were resolved. Bitfinex funding rates remain stable, suggesting active monitoring of favorable funding rate opportunities during volatile periods.
On regulation, new EU rules require cryptocurrency exchanges to comply with Travel Rule guidelines and strengthen anti-money laundering measures, meaning platforms such as Deribit must enhance their KYC procedures to continue normal operations. Key events this week include: Wednesday’s Bank of Canada rate decision (22:45), Thursday’s Federal Reserve rate decision (05:30) and ECB deposit facility rate announcement (21:15), and Friday’s U.S. December core PCE price index (21:30).
