TechFlow news, January 16 — 21Shares analysts stated that based on three key on-chain metrics—the MVRV ratio, unrealized net profit and loss, and long-term holder supply shock ratio—Bitcoin has not yet reached the peak of this bull cycle, indicating further upside potential remains in the market.
Specifically, the current MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio stands between 2.5 and 3. While local highs may occur, this is still far below the typical cycle peak level of 7. Analysts estimate Bitcoin’s price would need to surpass $200,000 to reach that level.
The current unrealized net profit and loss metric ranges between 0.5 and 0.75, requiring a reading of 0.75 or higher to signal overheated market sentiment. The long-term holder (holding over 155 days) supply shock ratio is only 0.4%, significantly below the overheating threshold of 0.8%. Recent pullbacks have primarily been driven by short-term holders.
The analysts noted that since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has gone through multiple four-year cycles, each comprising breakout, hype, correction, and accumulation phases. Although the historical sample size is small, this cycle has been influenced by new factors such as spot ETF approvals and increased institutional participation, potentially leading to shifts in certain metric behaviors. Nevertheless, all three current on-chain indicators suggest the market retains significant upward potential.
