TechFlow reports, on December 23, according to on-chain analyst Aunt Ai's analysis of Bitcoin's performance during the Christmas & New Year holidays over the past five years, Bitcoin has shown significant volatility between December 20 and January 6. However, except for the particularly intense movement in 2020, the actual price change in other years remained within 10%.
In 80% of the years, Bitcoin's price performed quite well in the two months following this period. If narrowing the bottom-feeding window to just one week after New Year's Day, the probability of making a profit still stands at 60%.
Observing the Nasdaq Composite Index performance over the past five years, while its range fluctuates significantly during the Christmas period, the overall price change remains modest. It can therefore be inferred that after the holiday season, U.S. equities are unlikely to exert significant negative pressure on Bitcoin.
In summary, although this bull market is heavily influenced by BTC ETF inflows and outflows, the Nasdaq Index has not notably declined during or after the Christmas period, indicating minimal impact on the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin’s own price action further contradicts the speculation of a "Christmas downturn."
