TechFlow reports that in the short term, Polymarket shows the market assigns over a 90% probability to Trump's victory, significantly deviating from current opinion polls. After Trump secured key electoral votes in Georgia, his odds of winning increased further, triggering panic-driven capital inflows from观望 investors and pushing BTC to a new all-time high. The Bitget Research Institute warns of potential price corrections following the election due to profit-taking by short-term traders.
In the medium to long term, Trump’s election would be positive for BTC. However, his policy direction may drive up U.S. inflation, potentially keeping interest rates above 3.5% over the longer horizon. With Republicans likely achieving a sweep of Congress, there could be progress on establishing a favorable regulatory framework for the crypto market, which would benefit the crypto sector in the medium to long term.
Additionally, the Bitget Research Institute notes that in the derivatives market, implied volatility (IV) in the options market has risen, while open interest in futures markets surged by $900 million in the short term, indicating traders are positioning for heightened future volatility. Meanwhile, stablecoin market capitalization has hit a new high and is now oscillating around $160 billion, providing substantial room for market leverage. BTC could reach $100,000 within five months.
