TechFlow reported on November 4, citing Jinshi News, that historical data shows when the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rises during the three months preceding an election, the incumbent party's candidate has an 80% probability of winning. Conversely, if the S&P 500 declines during this period, the opposing party's candidate has an 89% chance of victory. This has been a remarkably accurate signal in every election since 1928. Commentators noted that Harris would very likely win if the S&P 500 had not erased its 8% gains accumulated since August within a single day. Meanwhile, market experts interviewed pointed out that both the current market and political landscapes are highly unique, making this election more likely to be an exception to the aforementioned historical pattern.
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