TechFlow News, October 27 — Adam, researcher at Greeks.live, released his market outlook for the upcoming week (October 28 to November 3). This week is macro-heavy, with Friday’s non-farm payroll and unemployment data standing out as the last key economic releases before the U.S. election. There are almost no scheduled speeches by Federal Reserve officials this week, and overall market attention toward the election appears lower than expected.
Key events this week:
-
Wednesday, October 30: U.S. ADP employment change for October (20:15), preliminary annualized Q3 GDP growth rate (20:30);
-
Thursday, October 31: Bank of Japan interest rate decision and outlook report, U.S. September core PCE price index (20:30), weekly initial jobless claims (20:30);
-
Friday, November 1: U.S. October unemployment rate (20:30), U.S. October non-farm payrolls (20:30), U.S. October ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00), Apple earnings release.
Regarding current market conditions, Adam noted that the crypto market has shown weakness, with Bitcoin failing to break to new highs and other cryptocurrencies experiencing larger declines. He believes the impact of the U.S. election on the crypto market may be limited, but due to the high level of uncertainty surrounding the election, related options’ implied volatility (IV) remains elevated. Election-related options IV has climbed to 60%, while Bitcoin’s short- to medium-term IV generally stays below 40%, suggesting the election could become the only significant trading opportunity in the near term.
