TechFlow news, October 24 — According to Fortune, large bets placed by several mysterious accounts on the prediction market Polymarket have significantly boosted Donald Trump's odds of winning on the platform. Since the beginning of this month, four Polymarket accounts (Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie) have collectively invested $30 million betting on a Trump victory. Another user, zxgngl, has recently placed over $5 million in support of Trump. These substantial wagers have rapidly shifted market expectations.
Alex Marinier, a seed investor in Polymarket, suggested it could be "a single big player influencing the market." He believes these investors either genuinely expect Trump to win or are attempting to sway market sentiment to increase his chances. However, because Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market that prohibits U.S. users from participating, its accuracy has been questioned. Bloomberg reported that Polymarket is currently verifying whether its major users are based outside the United States.
George Kailas, CEO of Prospero.ai, expressed skepticism about the reliability of prediction markets, stating that "people invest in what they wish to happen, not necessarily based on strong logic or reasoning." He also noted that since Polymarket operates on cryptocurrency—and given Trump's pro-crypto stance—this may indicate that Trump supporters are simply more inclined to bet on him, rather than reflecting any collective "wisdom."
