TechFlow reported on October 23 that 10x Research posted on social media stating the 10-year Treasury yield had risen from 3.6% at the September FOMC meeting to 4.2% (+60 basis points). As yields broke above 4.0%, Trump's election probability increased to 60%, intensifying market concerns over inflation. Higher bond yields typically signal fewer expected rate hikes ahead. On October 4, nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations with 254k new jobs added, after which Trump launched his campaign, further boosting his election odds. This rise in yields triggered corrections in U.S. small-cap stocks (Russell 2000) and Bitcoin.
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