TechFlow reported on October 11 that Matrixport's latest weekly report indicated Bitcoin traders are preparing for a potential Trump victory rally, though overall market sentiment remains cautious. The report noted that despite Bitcoin options expiring on November 8, 2024, extreme positioning has not emerged. However, strike prices at $65,000 and $70,000 suggest some traders anticipate a market rebound. Trading volume in the Bitcoin options market this year has ranged between $42 billion and $71 billion, gradually replacing the lackluster spot market—particularly since the Bitcoin halving in April 2024—as the preferred leveraged instrument for traders.
MicroStrategy stock has become an alternative way to gain direct exposure to Bitcoin, even though its current share price exceeds the value of its held Bitcoin. While Bitcoin briefly rallied earlier this year, weakening market structure and liquidity factors led to a pullback. The report analyzed that a Trump victory could benefit Bitcoin; however, the Federal Reserve might respond with tighter monetary policy to counter potential economic overheating, which could hinder Bitcoin’s upward momentum. For short-term traders, the report recommends considering bullish options arbitrage strategies to manage risk and capture upside potential. As the U.S. election approaches, volatility in the Bitcoin market may intensify. Investors should closely monitor political developments and shifts in macroeconomic policy, making decisions prudently.
