TechFlow news: Adam, a researcher at Greeks.live, posted on social media that the U.S. economic data for October was strong, significantly reducing market expectations for a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's November 8 meeting. According to current 30-day federal funds futures pricing, the market's probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next meeting stands at 85%, while the probability of no rate cut is 15%—a notable decline compared to last month.
Meanwhile, the predicted probability of Trump winning the presidential election has been rising sharply in recent days, with the balance of the U.S. election on November 5 tilting toward Trump. Option data shows that market expectations for volatility in October are low; the at-the-money implied volatility (IV) for October has fallen below 45%, while the at-the-money IV for options expiring one week later, on November 8, stands at 55%. This indicates that most market participants remain cautious about taking positions this month, with观望 (watching and waiting) being the prevailing sentiment.
