TechFlow news, on September 18, according to Jinshi Data, multiple financial institutions including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Scotiabank, DBS Bank, and Citibank released their previews of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Most expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points tonight, with the dot plot becoming a focal point for markets.
Goldman Sachs believes that if the projections indicate eight or more rate cuts over this year and next, the market may still view it as an accelerated return toward neutral levels. Fitch forecasts rate cuts of 125 basis points in 2025 and 75 basis points in 2026. Citibank states that the probabilities of a 25- or 50-basis-point cut are similar, and expects Chair Powell to adopt a very dovish stance. Scotiabank forecasts two additional rate cuts by year-end, lowering the upper bound of the rate to 4.75%. ANZ Bank anticipates a total easing cycle of 200 basis points. Most institutions believe economic projections will support further rate cuts, though the Fed might slightly raise its 2024 GDP growth and unemployment rate forecasts.
