TechFlow reported on September 12 that Adam, a researcher at Greeks.live, stated on social media that as this week concludes smoothly—without significant volatility from the U.S. presidential debate or macroeconomic data—the market's expectations for next week's Federal Reserve rate cut are converging. According to CME Group's interest rate trading data, there is now an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut and only a 13% chance of a 50-basis-point cut. Meanwhile, options data show a notable decline across all major tenors' implied volatility, indicating that market expectations for volatility have failed to materialize. The dominant theme for September's market remains range-bound consolidation.
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