TechFlow news, on September 2, the latest Bitfinex Alpha report stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this month will significantly impact Bitcoin's short-term volatility and long-term trajectory. Since early August, Bitcoin has risen over 32%, primarily driven by expectations of a dovish signal from the Fed. Analysts predict that if the Fed cuts rates this month, Bitcoin could experience a 15-20% correction, with potential lows reaching $40,000–$50,000. This forecast is based on historical data analysis, factoring in a trend of declining peak returns by 60-70% per cycle and reduced average bull market pullbacks.
The report emphasizes that September has historically been a volatile month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -4.78% and typical peak-to-trough drawdowns of about 24.6%. Additionally, Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets such as the S&P 500 has strengthened, indicating its price movement will remain closely tied to global macroeconomic conditions. Bitfinex Alpha also noted that over the past week, spot holders have shown risk-off tendencies, while perpetual contract market speculators have attempted to "buy the dip." Currently, Bitcoin perpetual contracts still maintain significant long open interest.
