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According to TechFlow, on August 23 following Powell's speech, the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September increased. Data from CME's "FedWatch" tool showed a 67.5% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and a 32.5% chance of a 50-basis-point cut in September. The probabilities for cumulative rate cuts stood at 43% for a 50-basis-point reduction, 45.2% for a 75-basis-point reduction, and 11.8% for a 100-basis-point reduction by November.
After Powell's speech, the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September rose. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September is 67.5%, while the probability of a 50-basis-point cut is 32.5%. The probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut by November is 43%, a cumulative 75-basis-point cut is 45.2%, and a cumulative 100-basis-point cut is 11.8%.
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