TechFlow news, on August 2, Matrixport released a weekly report stating that Bitcoin's performance outlook for the fourth quarter is positive, while the current mid-third quarter faces challenges.
The report noted that recent Bitcoin price momentum has weakened, and the trading environment may remain weak for several weeks. However, from a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's trading range is narrowing, signaling an imminent breakout from this consolidation phase. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election could provide a boost to Bitcoin.
Fed Chair Powell indicated that if inflation evolves as expected, a rate cut decision could be made at the September meeting. The current interest rate stands at 5.25%, with inflation at 3.0%, and the gap between the two reflects the Fed's restrictive policy stance. This implies potentially significant rate cuts within the next 12 months, providing liquidity and stimulus for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
The report also mentioned that August typically shows stable performance, while September may enter a weak period due to low trading volumes during summer holidays and market观望 toward autumn economic data and central bank policies. Additionally, if Trump wins the election, his administration might adopt crypto-friendly regulatory policies, thereby reducing uncertainty and promoting innovation.
