TechFlow reported on July 29, citing Decrypt, that Polymarket, a prediction market, has seen significant growth as the U.S. election season approaches. In July, Polymarket recorded over $324 million in trading volume and reached 38,000 active traders, marking an all-time high. By comparison, in July 2023, there were only 1,200 active traders and $6 million in wagers.
Nine out of the top 10 most traded markets on Polymarket are related to the U.S. election. Wagers on who will win the U.S. presidential election have exceeded $400 million, while the second-largest market—bets on the 2024 Democratic nominee—has reached $286 million. According to Dune dashboard data, the platform generated over $100 million in wagers between July 21 and 24, with daily active traders peaking at 6,850 on July 22.
Notably, Polymarket data indicates Donald Trump has a 60% probability of winning the presidency, compared to Kamala Harris at 38%. This contrasts sharply with a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week showing Vice President Harris leading Trump 44% to 42%. The discrepancy highlights differing perspectives between bettors and traditional polling.
