TechFlow news — Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, published a blog post analyzing the recent announcement by Japan's fifth-largest bank, Norinchukin Bank, that it will sell $63 billion worth of U.S. and European bonds. This move signals that other Japanese banks may follow suit, potentially selling up to $450 billion in U.S. Treasuries.
Hayes指出，日本银行大规模抛售美债的原因是美日利差急剧扩大，导致持有美债的外汇对冲成本大幅上升，使得持有这些债券开始出现亏损。而在大选年，美国财长耶伦很可能会要求日本央行通过美联储的FIMA回购工具来吸纳这些被抛售的债券，以防止美债收益率大幅上升、引发金融市场动荡。
Hayes believes that if the Fed engages in large-scale money printing to回购 U.S. Treasuries sold by Japan, it will inject fresh dollar liquidity into the cryptocurrency market, fueling a new bull run. He argues that to sustain the current dollar-based financial system, the supply of dollars must increase—inevitably driving up prices of crypto assets including Bitcoin.
