TechFlow news — Matrixport has released a report stating that Bitcoin prices typically rise around the Lunar New Year, and it forecasts that Bitcoin will reach the peak of its cycle around September 2025, with the bull market potentially lasting for another 18 months.
The detailed analysis is as follows:
As early as 2023, our research indicated that Bitcoin tends to rise during the Lunar New Year period. Within 24 hours after we published this report—which received widespread media attention—Bitcoin indeed rose by the magnitude we had predicted.
Statistically, the period from shortly before the Lunar New Year to about ten days after it has historically delivered positive returns for Bitcoin traders. In the short term, Bitcoin prices tend to rise as expected. For example, buying Bitcoin three days before the Lunar New Year and holding it until ten days after has generated positive annual returns every year since 2015, with an average return of +11%.
First, purchasing Bitcoin 72 days before the halving has yielded mixed results.
Second, buying Bitcoin between 300 and 500 days before the halving and holding the same amount through the halving event has proven to be a more reliable strategy in terms of returns.
Third, if this pattern holds, it would suggest a bullish time window within the 300-day (February 16, 2025) to 500-day (September 4, 2025) range leading up to the cycle peak. This analysis provides us with a potential timeframe for the top of the current cycle.
While each cycle’s timing is complex, historical trends suggest the peak occurring around 500 days post-halving tends to be higher. Therefore, Matrix on Target expects Bitcoin could reach the cycle top around September 2025. This implies that the fifth Bitcoin bull market may continue for approximately another 18 months, leaving ample room for new sustainable themes to emerge and drive prices to new all-time highs.
Although Matrix on Target maintains a constructive outlook on Bitcoin based on liquidity, macroeconomic factors, and the U.S. presidential election cycle, performance in 2024 has unfolded as we initially anticipated—January and February remain challenging months for trading. Investors should maintain an active trading mindset and stay closely attuned to developments in the cryptocurrency market.
