TechFlow News, July 19: Citrini analyst Jukan stated in a post that according to the latest channel research, the global DRAM market's third-quarter average selling price (ASP) is expected to rise by 21% quarter-over-quarter. This expectation is higher than TrendForce's previous forecast of a 13% to 18% increase for traditional DRAM prices, and an overall increase of 8% to 13% including HBM.
The analysis suggests that the third-quarter DRAM price increase is mainly driven by multiple factors, including server DRAM prices rising 20% to 30% quarter-over-quarter and strong demand for high-speed LPDDR5; the DDR5 and DDR4 spot markets continue to heat up, with July prices further increasing quarter-over-quarter; increased HBM4 orders; long-term agreement (LTA) coverage ratio below 50%, with more spot and non-long-term agreement orders driving price increases; meanwhile, urgent procurement by some OEM manufacturers has also driven DRAM and NAND price increases exceeding 20%.
The market previously worried that memory chip manufacturers' third-quarter performance might fall short of expectations, but the latest contract price check results show that DRAM price trends are stronger than market consensus. Meanwhile, the positive guidance recently released by TSMC and ASML has also further strengthened the market's expectation of an upward trend in the memory industry.
