TechFlow reports that on July 17, CITIC Securities stated in a research report that xAI is an important participant in the global AI model industry and also a key component of SpaceX's "Space-Connect-AI" strategy. Relying on the Colossus cluster, X real-time data, Grok model, and Cursor developer entry point, the company has initially formed a "compute-data-model-application" closed loop. CITIC Securities believes that xAI currently exhibits the characteristics of "infrastructure-first, model-second," with mid-term growth mainly coming from compute leasing and Cursor, while the commercialization potential of the Grok 4.5 model and applications remains to be verified. Currently, the company's compute infrastructure capital expenditure reaches $12.7 billion, but AI-native revenue is less than $500 million, indicating a significant mismatch between commercialization progress and infrastructure investment.
CITIC Securities believes that the company's growth will mainly depend on the growth of its compute leasing and Cursor, among which the compute leasing business order scale reaches $80 billion, serving as the core driving force for xAI's growth. Currently, the large model industry is at a dual inflection point of technology and commerce. The firm is optimistic about AI infrastructure vendors with order and delivery capabilities, as well as AI application investment opportunities that can realize user growth and commercial value first. Subsequently, key tracking points will include commercialization product forms, the evolution of the competitive landscape among model vendors, and revenue and profit growth curves, etc.
