TechFlow news, according to Jefferies' July 15 optical expert conference call, the optical module market will double in 2026 and triple in 2027, but 1.6T optical modules will continue to face a 30% shortage from 2026 to 2027. 800G optical module shipments in 2026 will be approximately 40-42 million units, with demand exceeding 45 million units, resulting in a gap of about 10%; 1.6T optical module shipments in 2026 will be approximately 18 million units, with demand about 26 million units, resulting in a 30% gap. Upstream DSP and 200G EML chips are monopolized by US and Japanese manufacturers such as Broadcom, Marvell, Lumentum, and Sumitomo Electric, and domestic substitution in China will still take some time. Indium Phosphide (InP) is a key link; 70% of global supply is in China, and Yunnan Germanium Industry is a core target. Desay Battery's 200G EML is expected to enter mass production in the second half of 2026, marking a key milestone for domestic substitution. Jefferies believes optical module demand is certain, but the upstream supply landscape determines profit distribution; the InP supply chain and the progress of 200G EML breakthroughs deserve close attention.
Risk Disclosure: This website's content is not investment advice and offers no trading guidance or related services. Per regulations from the PBOC and other authorities, users must be aware of virtual currency risks. Contact us / [email protected] ICP License: 琼ICP备2022009338号
