TechFlow News, July 16: According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's rally cools, up 3% in 24 hours but down 0.5% since midnight, with Ethereum correcting simultaneously by 0.5%. Polymarket data shows expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month plummeted from 34% to 6.7%, the market expects a 93% probability of rates remaining unchanged, and CME Fed Fund Futures also show only a 14.4% probability of a rate hike.
XYO Co-founder Markus Levin stated that the crypto market's interpretation of macro signals has become more selective, no longer assuming favorable inflation data automatically triggers rate cuts or new highs. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said a single inflation report is insufficient to declare victory, Brent crude oil prices exceeding $85/barrel increase inflation risks, and expectations for a July rate cut by the European Central Bank have largely been dashed.
Market focus shifts to whether inflation can continue to cool, Bitcoin's subsequent trend will depend on the interplay between inflation and oil prices, and geopolitical factors also need attention.
