TechFlow news, July 14, Wintermute released a market analysis stating that despite successive geopolitical events such as the U.S. airstrike on Iran and the announcement of an "indefinite closure" of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin only fell slightly and held the $62,000 range, then rebounded to near $64,000, showing that the market remains resilient under continuous shocks. The institution believes that this indicates that weak holders in the market have been largely cleared out, and Bitcoin is undergoing a bottoming process of "higher lows".
In terms of capital flows, after cumulative outflows of approximately $8 billion to $9 billion since May, Bitcoin and Ethereum-related products recorded a combined net inflow of approximately $282 million last week, ending eight consecutive weeks of outflows, but Wintermute emphasized that this is currently still just "a turning point", not "a trend". Meanwhile, Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoins, cashing out approximately $216 million to pay preferred stock dividends, but the market reaction was lukewarm, reflecting that concerns about passive selling pressure that previously suppressed the market are weakening.
On the macro level, oil prices rose towards $79 due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield once rose to 4.57%, and market expectations for a rate hike in September rebounded from previously about 50% to 61%. Wintermute pointed out that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) released this week will directly affect expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting from July 28 to 29; if inflation data is moderate, it may alleviate rate hike bets, if the data is hot, it may further consolidate tightening expectations. Overall, although the current crypto market has temporarily stopped falling, it has not yet confirmed entry into a recovery phase, and key subsequent observation points include whether the CPI and ETFs continuously record net inflows, as well as the progress of the "CLARITY Act" this month.
