TechFlow News, July 13, QCP released its latest report, pointing out that although tensions between the US and Iran temporarily cooled on the surface after signing a memorandum of understanding, recent military frictions and mutual accusations have put ceasefire prospects under pressure again, and the geopolitical situation remains highly uncertain. Oil prices are currently maintained around $70 per barrel, with market reaction relatively restrained, but if supply recovery falls short of expectations, oil prices still face upside risks.
In the crypto market, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are hovering near key support levels. Rising market demand for downside protection is driving implied volatility higher, particularly with active trading in July-expiring Bitcoin put options with strike prices between $55,000 and $58,000.
Meanwhile, continued concerns surrounding MicroStrategy, Bitcoin spot ETF fund outflows, and pressure on US stocks against the backdrop of crowded AI trades are also exerting pressure on market sentiment.
However, the market is not entirely bearish. Over the weekend, there were also significant buy orders for Bitcoin call options expiring on July 17 with a strike price of $64,000, indicating that some traders are still positioning for short-term rebound opportunities as prices approach the lower end of the range.
On the macro front, the start of July will feature Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the ECB Forum, with the market focusing on his remarks on the policy path. Additionally, ISM Manufacturing PMI and US Non-farm Payrolls data will be released this week. Against the backdrop of thin liquidity due to US holidays, market volatility may be further amplified.
