TechFlow news, on July 9, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed and pointed out that as of July 9, 2026, the United States launching a new round of airstrikes against Iran and revoking exemptions for Iranian oil sales means the market needs to reprice the risk of a "collapse of the temporary peace agreement." Previously, the main market narrative was ceasefire, falling oil prices, eased inflationary pressure, and no need for the Fed to continue turning hawkish, giving risk assets room for recovery; however, as risks in the Strait of Hormuz heat up again, oil prices have once again become the core variable in macro pricing.
What needs to be most guarded against next is the "return of energy inflation." If attacks near the Strait of Hormuz continue, shipping insurance costs rise, or Iranian oil exports are restricted again, oil prices may remain high, further pushing up inflation expectations, compressing the Fed's room to turn dovish, or even reinforcing market discussions on rate hikes again. In this environment, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may remain strong; although gold has safe-haven attributes, if real interest rates rise, it may also face pressure in the short term.
For the crypto market, this is not simply a safe-haven benefit, but more like a liquidity stress test. Currently, BTC is still mainly traded by the market as a high-Beta risk asset, rather than a pure war safe-haven asset. If oil prices continue to rise, the US dollar strengthens, and US tech stocks correct, BTC may repeatedly test key support, while altcoins will bear greater pressure; ETH, SOL, and high-FDV new coins are especially vulnerable to the impact of liquidity contraction and declining risk appetite. More notably, this conflict occurs against the background where AI and tech stock narratives have begun to loosen. Recently, AI computing power, semiconductors, and high-valuation growth stocks have all shown divergence, indicating that the market's capacity to absorb crowded trades is declining. If macro factors are compounded by oil price shocks, the crypto market is highly likely to show a trend of high volatility, weak rebound, and a downward shift in center of gravity in the short term.
The most critical observation indicators for the coming week include: whether Brent oil prices hold firmly above $80, whether US short-term interest rates continue to rise, whether BTC ETF funds resume inflows, and whether OI in the contract market remains high amidst the decline. If these signals deteriorate simultaneously, the crypto market may enter a new round of deleveraging; if oil prices fall rapidly and negotiations resume, BTC may be the first to show a ceasefire recovery rebound.
Note: The content of this article is not investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation of an offer, or recommendation for any investment product.
