TechFlow news, May 24: Despite widespread concerns about inflation triggered by the war, signs are emerging that other factors are also influencing long-term borrowing costs. In the U.S., so-called “real yields”—yields adjusted for inflation—are exerting greater influence, indicating that bond investors are worried about more than just price pressures stemming from the Iran conflict. Other contributing factors include the already massive public debt burden potentially swelling further, the impact of the AI investment boom, and an increasing likelihood that central banks—including the Federal Reserve—will raise rates rather than cut them. Strategists at ING, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays all emphasize a prevailing view: recent rises in some long-term yields will not be fully reversed—even if inflation recedes due to falling oil prices. This implies that even after the conflict ends, market borrowing costs may remain near multi-year highs, continuing to pressure governments and the broader economy.
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