TechFlow News, May 7: According to a Bloomberg report, academic research and Bloomberg data analysis show that prediction market platform Kalshi has not yet demonstrated statistically significant superiority over traditional economists in forecasting U.S. nonfarm payrolls. Over the past 33 months, both Kalshi traders and Bloomberg survey economists have averaged errors exceeding 60,000 jobs—showing no statistically meaningful advantage. For example, in April 2026, when the official U.S. nonfarm payroll report revealed an increase of 178,000 jobs, Kalshi’s final forecast error exceeded 90,000 jobs. Some Wall Street economists view prediction markets as more akin to “a new form of gambling,” with limited analytical value for deeper labor-market structural data.
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